More than 50% of enquiries submitted to care homes are not related to prospective residents, according to new analysis, exposing a growing disconnect between reported demand and actual admissions across the sector.
The study, conducted by digital marketing agency Wolfenden, who work across a portfolio of independent care homes and multi-site groups, analysed anonymised data from a UK care home group operating 21 homes over a six-month period (September 2025 to February 2026).
They found that just 18% of enquiries submitted through primary website contact routes related to care, with only 10% indicating a clear admission-ready need. In contrast, over 50% of enquiries were recruitment-related, despite more than 3,000 job applications being submitted through dedicated careers pathways during the same period.
The findings point to a wider structural issue across the sector, where enquiry volume is often used as a proxy for demand, despite significant variation in intent. This raises questions over how care home operators are measuring demand and allocating marketing spend.
Daisy Wolfenden, Managing Director at Wolfenden, commented: “Care homes are not struggling with a lack of enquiries, but with how those enquiries are being interpreted. When over half of incoming enquiries are not care-related, and only a small proportion reflect families ready to take the next step, treating all enquiries equally creates a distorted view of performance and occupancy pipelines.”
“The analysis focused on primary online contact pathways, including website contact forms and manager-led enquiry routes. While these are typically reported as key conversion points, the underlying data shows a wide spectrum of user intent, from early-stage research through to recruitment enquiries and supplier contact. This distortion is being amplified by wider pressures across the sector.”
“Ongoing workforce shortages are driving sustained recruitment demand, with candidates increasingly using any available contact route rather than dedicated careers pages. At the same time, families are completing more of their research journey through third-party platforms and aggregator websites such as carehome.co.uk before making direct contact, meaning enquiries often reflect a later, but more mixed, stage of intent.”
“Against a backdrop of continued consolidation, with more homes being acquired into larger groups, the impact of misinterpreting demand is increasing. Budget allocation, forecasting and performance comparisons are now being made at portfolio level, where consistency and accuracy of data is critical. Small inaccuracies in how demand is classified are no longer just a reporting issue, they directly influence how budgets are allocated, how channels are optimised, and ultimately how occupancy is forecast. As groups scale, that risk compounds.”
“Paid media strategies are also reinforcing the problem. Where enquiry volume is used as a primary optimisation metric, platforms will naturally prioritise the easiest conversions to generate, rather than those most likely to result in admissions. If enquiry data isn’t qualified, paid activity will scale lower-intent actions. No amount of optimisation at channel level can correct for that if the underlying signals are flawed.”
“While full end-to-end tracking from enquiry through to admission is not always feasible within the care sector, operators need to move beyond volume-based reporting and adopt more sophisticated approaches to interpreting demand and performance. This includes weighting enquiry types based on intent, distinguishing between exploratory and admission-ready demand, and aligning channel performance with outcomes rather than raw conversion volume.”
“The solution isn’t always more data. It’s a better interpretation of the data already available, and a clearer understanding that not all demand carries the same commercial value.”
